Next crises: Food and water
REGARDED as the country’s “Prophet of Boom,” Dr. Bernardo Villegas of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) on Thursday sounded a surprisingly ominous tone. He warned that the next crises the country will face in the next few years would be on food and water.
In a presentation at the Mapfre Insular and Insular Life CEO Forum and Economic Briefing, Villegas warned that the growing number of people, particularly in China, could pose a threat to food security and water
resources.
With this, the country and private businesses must adopt a proagricultural investment stance that will increase funds to help farmers drum up production, improve their access to farm implements and postharvest facilities, modernize their processes, improve irrigation facilities and create farm-to-market roads.
“The next crisis will be food and water. This is why we need to fix our farm-to-market roads and irrigation facilities. We can become an important source of food for China,” Villegas said in his presentation, titled “The Philippine Economy on the Road to Recovery,” delivered in Makati City.
“China will turn to its neighbors in Southeast Asia for food. We need to have a surplus of food to be able to [meet the demand],” he added.
Villegas said, however, that when the government, businesses or the next administration formulate programs and projects to help the agriculture sector, there is a need to focus on high-value commercial crops such as bananas, mangoes, pineapples and all kinds of vegetables.
He also said “large-scale” investments in agriculture are not necessary since some crops like rice “do very well” even in small tracts of land.
Villegas said this is also the argument against the common misconception that the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) failed due to fragmentation.
He said CARP could have been more successful if the government only provided support or extension services
to farmers who were recipients of the program. He said the failure of the CARP was due to the government’s neglect in providing post-harvest facilities, irrigation and others to assist farmers.
“The failure of CARP is that we gave farmers a hectare of land and told him, ‘D’yan ka na, ikaw na bahala [It’s yours; fend for yourself],” Villegas stressed.
Villegas said the government’s neglect of agriculture has set back the country in agricultural development by 20 years. He said it was only during the time of President Estrada, through his agriculture secretary and now Sen. Edgardo Angara, that the government started to reinvest in agriculture.
He said under the term of President Aquino, the government was busy defending democracy through the seven coup d’états that rocked her administration, while the Ramos years focused on the government’s struggle to put “light” back to the streets of Metro Manila.
This is why, Villegas said, the government was only able to start reinvesting in agriculture during the brief term of President Estrada. He said in the two years that President Estrada was in office, the government embarked on developing or rehabilitating irrigation facilities and constructing farm-to-market roads.
This, Villegas said, was continued in the Arroyo administration but should not stop in 2010 when the President steps down. The next administration should continue these investments as well as increase investments in education.
Investing in education could allow the local business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry to move from just being call centers to being knowledge-based centers, according to Villegas. He said China is already preparing to invade the call-center industry by teaching English in schools.
When that time comes, Villegas said, there would be more Chinese who speak very good English than Filipinos. He thinks shifting to a knowledge-based BPO industry like higher-value services, such as animation and architecture, could be a more stable source of BPO growth.
It would also do well for the next administration to focus on allowing the peso to depreciate to around P52 to $1—in order, he explained, to drive domestic consumption through overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittances, as well as provide some incentive to exporters who may be prejudiced by a strong peso.
This year, he expects OFW remittances to reach P17 billion, and projects that the peso-dollar exchange rate will be at P50 to $1. This will mean that OFW families will have enough to spend and boost domestic consumption toward the end of the year.
A depreciated peso, Villegas added, will also encourage food manufacturers to start looking for new markets, particularly in Indonesia where there are at least 220 million people.
He said companies like Nestlé have already started this trend and such can continue, especially if the next administration also boosts agriculture production.
Written by Cai U. Ordinario
Source: Business Mirror